717 Dubai Off-Plan Projects Launched Since 2023. 94% Held Their Prices.

Dubai developers sold 62,147 off-plan apartments in the first eight months of 2026. Volume fell 6% year on year. Prices barely moved.

That gap is the story.

Khaleej Times analysed 717 projects launched since July 2023. Only 44 (6%) cut prices by 5% or more since February. Just 28 (4%) trade below launch price. More than 90% kept their launch pricing intact.

In a genuine downturn, developers discount first and ask questions later. Dubai developers held the line and let volume absorb the adjustment. That is what a seller with confidence, funded balance sheets, and a deep buyer queue does.

The buyers are choosing, not fleeing

The data shows a market that sorts winners from losers by price:

• Projects priced about 4.2% above the area median sold 73.8% of their units.
• Projects priced 20% or more above the median sold a median 60%.
• Studio sales rose 26% to 21,728. In Dubai South, studios jumped 185% to 11,147.

Buyers still commit capital. They commit it to the right entry point. As Firas Al Msaddi of fäm Properties put it, pricing now decides how fast a project sells out.

Why this favours the off-plan buyer

Entry pricing. A buyer who picks a project priced near the area median enters at the level the market already clears at 74%. That is a documented absorption rate, not a brochure promise.

Payment plans. Off-plan lets a buyer control 100% of an asset's price movement while paying a fraction up front. In a market where 94% of projects hold launch prices, that leverage works in the buyer's favour from day one.

Handover upside. Abu Dhabi shows the pattern at scale. Off-plan drove 89% of H1 2026 residential sales value there. Apartment prices rose 19.4% year on year and townhouses 11.2%. Abu Dhabi deals reached Dh155 billion in eight months, beating the Dh142 billion for all of 2025.

Developer discipline. Sellers who refuse to discount signal that they expect to deliver and expect demand to follow. That track record is the asset you underwrite.

My take

Weaker volume with firm pricing reads as a filter, not a warning. The market is moving from "buy anything" to "buy the right thing." That favours investors who do the work: compare launch price to area median, check the developer's delivery record, and pick unit types where demand is rising.

The 6% of projects that cut prices tell you where the market says no. The 94% that held tell you where it says yes.

Off-plan rewards selection. The investors who read this data will pick the winners.

The question

If 94% of developers will not cut prices, would you rather buy off-plan now at today's launch prices, or wait for a discount that the data says most projects will not offer?